Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
