A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
